Current and Future Distribution of Blacklegged Ticks in Quebec

Municipalities with established Ixodes scapularis tick populations are identified from passive and active surveillance data aggregated from 2009 to 2017. Future climate suitability projections for tick establishment are modeled for 2030, 2050, and 2080 horizons under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. The data supports public health risk assessment for Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis.

Use Cases

• Model the relationship between annual degree-days above 0°C (DJ0) and the establishment of tick populations across municipalities.
• Compare current tick distribution from 2009-2017 surveillance data with future projections for 2030, 2050, and 2080 to assess climate change impact.
• Identify municipalities flagged with an established population indicator to map higher-risk zones for tick-borne disease transmission.
• Analyze climate scenario outputs (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) on the 10km x 10km grid to forecast shifts in favorable climatic zones.

Strengths

• Includes future climate projections for three distinct time horizons (2030, 2050, 2080).
• Data derived from combined passive and active acarological surveillance over a multi-year period (2009-2017).
• Spatial analysis is performed on a standardized 10km x 10km grid.

Limitations

• Sample data and specific row/column counts are unavailable, limiting preliminary assessment of dataset structure and volume.
• The 'established population' indicator is binary (present/absent) and may not capture low-density or transient populations.
• Future projections are model-dependent and subject to uncertainties inherent in the SSP climate scenarios used.

Provenance

Source

Government and Municipalities of Québec

Collection Method

Passive and active acarological surveillance data aggregated by municipality and year, with climate suitability modeled from degree-day calculations on a 10km grid.

Time Range

Historical: 2009-2017; Future projections: 2030, 2050, 2080 horizons.

Freshness

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Geography

Municipalities and a 10km x 10km grid across Quebec, Canada.