West Nile Virus Activity and Climate Suitability Zones in Quebec

A 2 km resolution West Nile virus activity zone for Quebec is defined from aggregated human, animal, and mosquito surveillance data. Future climatic suitability zones for virus transmission by Culex pipiens are modeled at a 10 km resolution for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 emission scenarios. The data includes historical seasonal average temperature calculations from 1989 to 2018.

Use Cases

• Model future WNV transmission risk by analyzing projected seasonal average temperature zones for 2030, 2050, and 2080 horizons.
• Compare current WNV activity zones, based on surveillance data, against historical climatic suitability zones defined by a 14°C seasonal average temperature threshold.
• Assess spatial risk changes by overlaying the 2 km resolution activity buffers with 10 km resolution future temperature projections.
• Validate surveillance coverage by identifying areas outside the documented WNV activity zone where climatic conditions remain favorable for transmission.

Strengths

• Includes future projections for three time horizons (2030, 2050, 2080) under two distinct greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0).
• Integrates multiple data sources: human, animal, and entomological (mosquito) surveillance aggregated to define the virus activity zone.
• Provides spatial data at two resolutions: 2 km for historical activity buffers and 10 km for climate suitability modeling.

Limitations

• The WNV activity zone is based on historical detections; absence in the zone does not guarantee the virus is not present, as noted in the description.
• Future climate projections rely on model estimates and specific percentile choices (50th percentile), introducing uncertainty.
• Sample data and specific row/column counts for the underlying tabular files are unavailable, limiting immediate assessment of dataset scale.

Provenance

Source

Government and Municipalities of Québec, published via open_canada and linked to INSPQ (Institut national de santé publique du Québec) publications.

Collection Method

Surveillance data aggregated with buffer zones; climate data generated from daily temperature models for seasonal averages (April-September).

Time Range

Historical: 1989-2018. Future projections: 2030, 2050, 2080 horizons.

Freshness

Projections extend to 2080; metadata indicates a last update date of 2026-03 25.

Geography

Province of Quebec, Canada.