Met Office Blended Probabilistic Forecast for 5,956 Global Sites

Probabilistic weather forecasts for 5,956 specific sites worldwide, produced by the Met Office IMPROVER system. The data is derived from operational Numerical Weather Prediction ensembles and nowcasts, then blended and calibrated. It is one of eight such products published by the Met Office on AWS and is available in NetCDF format.

Use Cases

• Assessing the probability of extreme weather events exceeding specific thresholds based on ensemble-derived probabilities.
• Comparing forecast skill and reliability for different global locations based on the calibrated, blended output.
• Developing applications for site-specific weather risk management based on the 33 available parameters like precipitation, wind, and lightning.
• Analyzing temporal forecast patterns for up to 120 hours ahead based on hourly and 3-hourly timesteps.

Strengths

• Covers 5,956 specific global sites, providing localized forecast data.
• Includes 33 weather parameters, such as cloud, precipitation, wind, and UV.
• Forecasts are calibrated and verified using spread-skill and reliability checks via the IMPROVER pipeline.
• Probabilities are derived from ensemble forecasts, offering a range of possible outcomes.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count and exact data size are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• The description notes that details like the number of sites may change after April 2026.

Provenance

Source

Met Office

Collection Method

Derived from the Met Office's operational NWP ensembles and nowcasts, blended and calibrated using the IMPROVER pipeline.

Time Range

Forecasts are available for timesteps including every hour from 0 to 120 hours.

Freshness

Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.

Geography

Global domain covering the whole world, excluding the British Isles and parts of Western Europe.