MTA Ridership Projections from McKinsey for Pandemic Recovery

Ridership projections for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority were developed by McKinsey & Company to assess the financial impact of COVID-19. The dataset contains monthly forecasts for multiple MTA agencies from October 2020 through December 2026. It was published by data.ny.gov and last updated in June 2025.

Use Cases

• Analyze ridership recovery trends by Agency and Month to model revenue shortfalls.
• Compare the Projection and Recovery columns to evaluate forecast accuracy over time.
• Assess the pace of recovery across different agencies like LIRR or Bridges & Tunnels.

Strengths

• Projections cover a 6-year time range from October 2020 to December 2026.
• Includes data for multiple MTA agencies, enabling comparative analysis.

Limitations

• Actual ridership data for validation is not included, limiting accuracy assessment.
• Sample size and row count are unknown, making statistical reliability unclear.

Provenance

Source

data.ny.gov, based on analysis by McKinsey & Company for the MTA.

Collection Method

Developed as management projections to model pandemic impact.

Time Range

October 2020 - December 2026 (projection period).

Freshness

Last updated on 2025-06-26.

Geography

Metropolitan Transportation Authority service area (New York City and surrounding regions).