1994 NAFTA introduction provides the temporal context for analyzing changes in drug-related homicides across Mexican municipalities. The data supports a hypothesis testing framework comparing municipalities with and without predicted drug-trafficking routes. It quantifies an increase of 2.1 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants on these routes, equivalent to 26% of the pre-NAFTA mean.
Use Cases
- Test the hypothesis that NAFTA increased trafficking profits and violent competition by analyzing homicide changes across municipalities with predicted drug-trafficking routes.
- Compare pre- and post-NAFTA homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants to quantify the policy's localized impact on violence.
- Analyze the geography of violence by correlating homicide data with municipalities identified as having a recent history of detected drug trafficking.
- Model the relationship between proximity to U.S. land ports of entry and changes in homicide rates following the 1994 policy shift.
Strengths
- Quantifies a specific effect size: a 2.1 per 100,000 inhabitant increase in homicides on trafficking routes, equivalent to 26% of the pre-NAFTA mean.
- Employs a clear comparative research design, analyzing changes across municipalities with and without predicted trafficking routes.
- Data is grounded in a specific, testable hypothesis linking the 1994 NAFTA policy to changes in violent competition among cartels.
Limitations
- Specific data granularity (e.g., row count, column features, file format) is unknown, limiting assessment of analytical scope.
- Relies on predicted least-cost paths for drug-trafficking routes, which may not fully capture actual trafficking geography.
- The study's focus is on the initial period following NAFTA (1994), potentially missing longer-term or evolving dynamics.
Provenance
- Source
- ICPSR Harvested Dataverse
- Collection Method
- Hypothesis testing via comparison of homicide changes across municipalities with and without predicted drug-trafficking routes, using least cost path analysis.
- Time Range
- Centered on the 1994 introduction of NAFTA, with pre- and post-policy analysis.
- Freshness
- null
- Geography
- Municipalities in Mexico, with analysis tied to routes connecting to U.S. land ports of entry.