China's Provincial Energy System Model for 1.5-2.0°C Pathways

A national-scale energy system model developed in the MESSAGEix framework provides provincial-level resolution for key sectors and high-granularity intra-annual power system dynamics. The analysis, authored by Songmin Yu, explores three temperature targets and six allocation principles to reveal technology dependencies for China's 2060 carbon neutrality pledge. The dataset was last updated on May 15, 2026.

Use Cases

• Compare wind and solar deployment across scenarios based on their description as 'no-regret' pillars.
• Analyze the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for heavy-industry abatement as indicated in the description.
• Model hydrogen sourcing shifts under different budget stringency constraints mentioned in the analysis.
• Study the systemic codependency between power sector transformation and heavy industry decarbonization under stringent emissions constraints.

Strengths

• Model combines provincial-level resolution for key sectors with 48 intra-annual time slices for power system dynamics.
• Analysis covers three specific temperature targets (1.5, 1.6, 2.0 °C) and six allocation principles.
• Dataset is 16.2 MB in size, suggesting a contained, downloadable model output.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• The model's calibration and underlying assumptions are not fully detailed in the provided metadata.

Provenance

Source

figshare

Collection Method

Output from a national-scale energy system model developed in the MESSAGEix framework, calibrated to China's energy balances.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-05-15 09:04:25

Geography

China, with provincial-level resolution