Modeled Elkhorn Coral Distributions in U.S. Virgin Islands

Modeled density distributions for threatened elkhorn corals (Acropora palmata) in shallow waters off St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. Predictions for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2035, and 2055 were generated using process-based random forest and dynamic range models to inform restoration plans. The dataset is produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Use Cases

• Assessing potential sites for Acropora palmata restoration based on predicted density maps.
• Analyzing climate change impacts on coral distribution by comparing 2013-2015 models with 2035 and 2055 projections.
• Incorporating prediction uncertainty layers into spatial planning for marine protected areas.
• Validating ecological models using process-based random forest and dynamic range model outputs for the Caribbean.

Strengths

• Provides multi-decadal projections for five distinct years (2013, 2014, 2015, 2035, 2055), enabling temporal trend analysis.
• Models incorporate prediction uncertainty estimates, offering insight into model confidence for each raster cell.
• Generated using two distinct modeling approaches (process-based random forest and dynamic range models) for the same region.

Limitations

• Key technical details are unspecified, including raster resolution, column names, and exact file size.
• Conflicting last-update dates exist between platforms (2055-12-31 and 2026-03 05), creating uncertainty about metadata freshness.
• The dataset's license information is not provided across any source.

Provenance

Source

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce

Collection Method

Modeled predictions generated using process-based random forest (RF) and dynamic range models (DRM).

Time Range

2013 to 2055

Freshness

2026-03-05 23:37:36.771583

Geography

Shallow waters (bottom depth ≥ -20 m) off St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, Caribbean Sea.