NOAA Aviation Ceiling and Visibility Forecast Accuracy for Instrument Flight Rules

NWS assesses the quality of Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) threshold forecasts using statistical metrics like Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR). The dataset tracks forecast performance with columns including Status, Target, Proximity, Fiscal Year, Actual, and Performance Indicator. It was last updated on 2025-03-07 and is hosted by performance.commerce.gov.

Use Cases

• Analyze forecast accuracy trends over Fiscal Year using the Performance Indicator column.
• Compare forecasted versus Actual IFR conditions to calculate error rates.
• Assess the relationship between Proximity to forecast location and forecast Status (e.g., correct, false alarm).
• Model the impact of different Targets (e.g., specific airports or regions) on forecast performance metrics.

Strengths

• Forecast performance is tracked using fundamental statistical metrics (POD and FAR) as described by the NWS.
• Data is available in multiple machine-readable formats including CSV, JSON, XML, and RDF.
• The dataset was updated on 2025-03-07, indicating recent maintenance.

Limitations

• Row count and total dataset size are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality and completeness require manual inspection after download.

Provenance

Source

performance.commerce.gov

Collection Method

Assessments by the National Weather Service (NWS) of forecast performance against observed conditions.

Freshness

Last updated 2025-03-07 22:45:05.