Northeastern Pacific Ocean Climate Projections Under RCP Scenarios

Fisheries and Oceans Canada provides three 20-year mean climate simulations from the NEP36-CanOE model at a 1/36-degree spatial resolution with 50 vertical levels. The dataset includes a historical simulation (1986-2005) and future projections (2046-2065) for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Outputs contain monthly 3D fields for 13 biogeochemical variables, including air-sea carbon dioxide flux, potential temperature, salinity, and dissolved inorganic carbon.

Use Cases

• Project changes in air-sea carbon dioxide flux under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios to assess ocean carbon uptake.
• Analyze spatial patterns of aragonite saturation state and pH to model ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystems.
• Compare historical and future 3D fields of potential temperature and salinity to study climate-driven changes in ocean stratification.
• Use monthly total primary production and chlorophyll data to estimate shifts in marine productivity for the 2046-2065 period.

Strengths

• High spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (1.5-2.25 km) with 50 vertical levels for detailed oceanographic analysis.
• Includes 13 distinct monthly 3D biogeochemical variables, such as dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrate, per simulation.
• Provides a 20-year mean climatology for both a historical baseline (1986-2005) and two future RCP scenarios (2046-2065).
• Model methodology incorporates augmented wind variability to improve the realism of surface freshwater distribution.

Limitations

• Data represents 20-year climatological means rather than continuous interannual time series, limiting variability analysis.
• Output is averaged over the last 3 years of simulation following equilibration, potentially smoothing extreme events.
• A provided mask indicates regions where data should be used cautiously, suggesting model uncertainties in certain areas.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Collection Method

Dynamically downscaled projections from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) using the NEMO V3.6 ocean model with the CanOE biogeochemical component.

Time Range

Historical: 1986-2005; Future Projections: 2046-2065

Freshness

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Geography

Northeastern Pacific Ocean region adjacent to Canada