Northeastern Pacific Ocean Climate Projections for 2046-2065 Under RCP 4.5

Three simulations from the Northeastern Pacific Canadian Ocean Ecosystem Model project the 2046-2065 mean climate under the moderate mitigation scenario RCP 4.5. The dataset includes 50 vertical levels at a 1/36-degree spatial resolution, providing monthly 3D fields for variables like potential temperature, salinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, and total chlorophyll. It is produced by Fisheries and Oceans Canada using a multi-stage downscaling approach from global climate models.

Use Cases

• Analyze projected air-sea carbon dioxide flux under the RCP 4.5 scenario to assess regional carbon uptake.
• Model changes in aragonite saturation state and pH to study ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystems.
• Examine spatial and vertical distributions of nitrate, oxygen, and total chlorophyll to project future primary production.
• Compare monthly maximum and minimum values for oxygen and potential temperature to identify climate stress extremes.
• Use the 3D potential temperature and salinity fields to validate regional ocean circulation models under future climate forcing.

Strengths

• High spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (~1.5-2.25 km) for detailed regional analysis.
• Includes 50 vertical levels, enabling 3D analysis of oceanographic and biogeochemical variables.
• Provides projections for a 20-year future period (2046-2065) under a defined climate scenario (RCP 4.5).
• Model outputs include standard deviation among 3 simulation years, offering a measure of internal variability.

Limitations

• Simulations represent a 20-year mean climate, lacking full interannual variability for long-term trend analysis.
• Computational constraints led to the use of atmospheric climatologies with augmented winds, not fully coupled interannual runs.
• A provided mask indicates regions where data should be used cautiously, implying potential model inaccuracies in certain areas.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Collection Method

Dynamical downscaling of CanESM2 global projections using the NEP36-CanOE configuration of NEMO V3.6, forced by CanRCM4 atmospheric data.

Time Range

Projection for 2046-2065 (future) with a historical reference for 1986-2005.

Freshness

Last updated March 24, 2026.

Geography

Northeastern Pacific Ocean region adjacent to Canada.