Northeastern Pacific Ocean Climate Projections for 2046-2065 Under RCP 8.5

Fisheries and Oceans Canada provides the Northeastern Pacific Canadian Ocean Ecosystem Model (NEP36-CanOE) projection for the 2046-2065 climate under the no-mitigation RCP 8.5 scenario. The dataset includes monthly 3D fields for 13 biogeochemical variables like potential temperature, salinity, and dissolved inorganic carbon across 50 vertical levels at a 1/36-degree spatial resolution. It is derived from a computationally expensive model using a multi-stage downscaling approach from CanESM2 and CanRCM4 outputs.

Use Cases

• Analyze projected changes in air-sea carbon dioxide flux and dissolved inorganic carbon to assess ocean carbon uptake under high-emission scenarios.
• Model future aragonite saturation state and pH fields to study ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystems in the Northeastern Pacific.
• Use monthly 3D potential temperature and salinity outputs to validate regional climate models and study ocean heat content changes.
• Investigate spatial patterns of total primary production and total chlorophyll to project shifts in marine productivity for 2046-2065.

Strengths

• High spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (~1.5-2.25 km) for detailed regional analysis of the Northeastern Pacific.
• Includes 13 distinct monthly 3D biogeochemical variables, such as nitrate, oxygen, and total alkalinity, across 50 vertical levels.
• Model outputs represent a 20-year climatological mean (2046-2065) for a specific high-emission climate scenario (RCP 8.5).
• Methodology uses augmented winds with hourly anomalies to create a more realistic surface freshwater distribution than climatologies alone.

Limitations

• Data represents a 20-year climatological mean from a single model realization, lacking full interannual variability for the period.
• A provided mask indicates regions where data should be used cautiously, suggesting potential model artifacts or boundary issues.
• The computationally expensive model configuration limited simulations to climatological forcing rather than full interannual runs.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Collection Method

Dynamical downscaling of CanESM2 global projections using the NEP36-CanOE ocean model (NEMO V3.6) forced by CanRCM4 atmospheric climatologies with augmented winds.

Time Range

2046-2065 (future projection)

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Northeastern Pacific Ocean