Electricity Price Scenarios for Four U.S. Grid Regions

Featuring modeled electricity price series for four U.S. grid regions (CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, PJM-W) under two CO2 price scenarios. The data was generated using the ReEDS and PLEXOS models based on the 2020 Standard Scenario Mid-case assumptions. It is designed to analyze capacity expansion towards low-carbon systems that could support carbon capture and storage.

Use Cases

• Compare load-weighted average electricity prices between the CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, and PJM-W regions under different CO2 price trajectories.
• Analyze the impact of linearly increasing CO2 prices, starting at $0/tCO2 in 2020 and ending at $100/tCO2 or $150/tCO2 in 2035, on modeled electricity price series.
• Use the price data aggregated to the ISO/RTO level to inform energy system modeling or policy analysis for low-carbon grid scenarios.

Strengths

• Data is derived from the well-documented 2020 ReEDS model version and the 2020 Standard Scenario Mid-case.
• Price series are provided for two distinct CO2 price scenarios ($100/tCO2 and $150/tCO2 by 2035), enabling comparative analysis.
• Modeling was performed using PLEXOS Version 8.2 with the Xpress-MP 35.01.01 solver, specifying a 1% mixed integer optimization relative gap.

Limitations

• The dataset's temporal coverage is focused on a future scenario year (2035) based on 2020 model assumptions, limiting historical analysis.
• The modeled price data is aggregated to the ISO/RTO level, which may obscure more granular, nodal price dynamics.
• The scenario design prohibits CCS deployment in the modeled timeframe, which may not reflect all potential future system configurations.

Provenance

Source

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), developed for the ARPA-E FLECCS Program.

Collection Method

Generated via the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion tool, with PLEXOS simulations run on 2035 ReEDS infrastructure under specified CO2 price scenarios.

Time Range

Scenario-based, focused on the year 2035, with CO2 price trajectories spanning from 2020 to 2035.

Freshness

The dataset metadata was last updated in March 2026, but the underlying model scenarios are based on 2020-2021 references.

Geography

Four U.S. electricity grid regions: CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, and PJM-W.