Manchester Triage System Performance Over a Decade

A German tertiary care hospital's retrospective observational study of 355,135 emergency patients from 2014 to 2023. Ingo Gräff authored this dataset to evaluate the longitudinal accuracy and stability of the Manchester Triage System (MTS). The data includes patient urgency levels, admission predictions, and survival probabilities over a ten-year period.

Use Cases

• Analyze trends in average patient age and MTS urgency level distribution across the 2014-2023 period.
• Model hospital and ICU admission predictions using reported AUC metrics for each study year.
• Assess short-term (12-hour) and 30-day survival probabilities stratified by MTS color codes (blue, orange, red).
• Evaluate the impact of external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic on 30-day mortality prediction accuracy (AUC).

Strengths

• Contains analysis of 355,135 patient records over a 10-year longitudinal period (2014-2023).
• Reports specific, consistent performance metrics (AUC ranges) for admission and mortality predictions.

Limitations

• Dataset is very small (9.5 KB), likely containing summary statistics rather than raw patient-level data.
• Monocentric design from a single German hospital limits generalizability to other healthcare settings.
• Temporal staleness is a risk as the underlying patient data ends in 2023.

Provenance

Source

figshare, authored by Ingo Gräff.

Collection Method

Large-scale, monocentric, retrospective observational study at a tertiary care hospital.

Time Range

2014 to 2023

Freshness

Analysis published in 2026, but underlying patient data covers up to 2023.

Geography

A tertiary care hospital in Germany (implied by author affiliation).