Markov Model Transition Probabilities for Knee Osteoarthritis Treatments

Transition probabilities for a 40-year Markov model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of mesenchymal stromal cell and extracellular vesicle treatments versus standard care for knee osteoarthritis. The model was developed by Iris W. A. Boot and published on figshare in March 2026. It includes base-case probabilities used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and surgical outcomes.

Use Cases

• Calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for different cell therapy production methods from hospital and societal perspectives.
• Model the expected number of total knee replacement surgeries using the provided transition probabilities for treatment and control groups.
• Perform one-way sensitivity and scenario analyses on the Markov model's cost and outcome parameters.
• Compare the long-term (40-year) effectiveness of automated versus manual production of mesenchymal stromal cells and extracellular vesicles.

Strengths

• Model spans a 40-year time horizon for long-term economic evaluation.
• Includes specific ICER results for four distinct treatment scenarios compared to standard care.
• Provides concrete surgical outcome projections, such as 426 vs. 609 total knee replacements per 1000 patients.

Limitations

• Dataset is very small at 5.5 KB, containing only the core model parameters without patient-level data.
• Model results are specific to the Netherlands healthcare context and may not generalize.
• The underlying clinical trial data and raw patient inputs for the model are not included.

Provenance

Source

figshare, authored by Iris W. A. Boot.

Collection Method

Derived from a constructed Markov model for health economic analysis.

Time Range

Model projects outcomes over a 40-year period.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Netherlands