Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Canadian Shelf Waters

2012-2022 observations and 2040-2059 projections for 10 Canadian shelf water regions, derived from HadISST data and a 22-member CMIP6 model ensemble. The dataset compares past and future temperature changes under four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). It includes regional analyses, such as the Gulf of St. Lawrence showing the highest correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (r=0.65).

Use Cases

• Compare observed SST changes from the HadISST product with projected changes from the 22-member CMIP6 ensemble across 10 Canadian shelf water regions.
• Analyze regional SST trends, such as the Gulf of St. Lawrence's projected annual mean increase of 1.8 – 2.5°C, under four SSP climate scenarios.
• Investigate correlations between regional SSTs and climate indices, like the British Columbia Shelf's relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (r=0.58).
• Model future summer mean SST changes, identifying regions like the southern Beaufort Sea with the largest projected increase of 2.4 - 3.1°C.

Strengths

• Data covers 10 distinct Canadian shelf water regions for focused spatial analysis.
• Uses a 22-member ensemble of CMIP6 models for robust future projections under four SSP scenarios.
• Compares a recent observation period (2012-2022) against a historical climatology (1955-1980).
• Includes specific correlation metrics for climate indices, such as r=0.65 for the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the AMO.

Limitations

• Specific row count, column structure, and granular temporal resolution are not provided in the input.
• The CMIP6 ensemble is noted to overestimate observed SST changes by about 0.1°C in most regions.
• Projections are for specific future periods (mid-century 2040-2059) and may not cover other timeframes.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ocean Ecosystems Science Division.

Collection Method

Past changes derived from the HadISST product; future projections from a 22-member CMIP6 model ensemble.

Time Range

Observations reference 1955-1980 climatology and 2012-2022; projections for 2040-2059.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026, with data published in October 2025.

Geography

Oceans surrounding Canada, specifically 10 shelf water regions including the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Baffin Bay.