Climate Change Impacts on Global Grain Yields and Food Supply

Projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change, generated from a crop modeling study using 125 agricultural sites. The data includes yield estimates for wheat, rice, coarse grains, and protein feed under different climate and adaptation scenarios, produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and distributed by CIESIN. One platform lists a recent update in August 2025, while another shows a placeholder date of 2110.

Use Cases

• Modeling future food security by analyzing projected changes in crop yields for wheat, rice, and coarse grains under climate scenarios.
• Assessing economic impacts of climate change using regional estimates of potential price increases and food shortages.
• Evaluating adaptation strategies by comparing crop yield outcomes across three levels of farmer adaptations to climate change.
• Studying global agricultural trade patterns by feeding aggregated yield data from major trading regions into a global trade model.

Strengths

• Data is derived from a structured modeling study using 125 agricultural sites representing major world agricultural regions.
• Includes projections for multiple key crops: wheat, rice, coarse grains (barley and maize), and protein feed (soybean).
• Scenarios incorporate three distinct levels of farmer adaptations to climate change, adding analytical depth.
• Outputs are integrated with a global trade model (BLS) to produce economic estimates like price increases and risk of hunger.

Limitations

• Specific row counts, file sizes, and detailed column schemas are not provided by any source.
• There is a conflict in reported freshness: one source shows an update in 2025, while another uses a distant placeholder date (2110).
• The license is not clearly specified, which may restrict certain uses.

Provenance

Source

Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

Collection Method

Crop yield estimates generated from equilibrium and transient scenarios output from General Circulation Models (GCMs), aggregated to major trading regions and fed into the Basic Linked Systems (BLS) global trade model.

Time Range

Projected future scenarios under climate change.

Freshness

2025-08-23 (from datagov); nasa_earthdata shows a placeholder date of 2110-12-31.

Geography

Global coverage, with data aggregated from 125 agricultural sites to country and major trading region levels.