Predicted Distribution of Vazella pourtalesi Glass Sponge on Scotian Shelf

Published in April 2023, this dataset contains predicted presence probabilities and range distributions for the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf, modeled using random forest on presence-absence records. The analysis covers a 259 km² conservation area and identifies bottom temperature as the key distribution determinant, with over 99% of the predicted range remaining unprotected.

Use Cases

• Model species distribution shifts using predicted presence probability and bottom temperature variables.
• Assess marine conservation area efficacy by comparing protected zones to the full predicted distribution.
• Analyze historical persistence by correlating reconstructed bottom temperature and salinity data with species occurrence.
• Forecast climate change impacts by examining the species' association with specific water mass characteristics.

Strengths

• Model outputs are based on random forest modeling with a cited high degree of accuracy.
• Analysis includes a specific spatial context, covering a 259 km² conservation area on the Scotian Shelf.
• Incorporates long-term climatic context with historical reconstructions showing 8˚C bottom temperature variability.

Limitations

• The underlying presence-absence record count used for modeling is not specified.
• Predictive model outputs may not capture fine-scale habitat heterogeneity within the broad shelf region.
• Data freshness is uncertain as the core analysis and publication date is 2023.

Provenance

Source

Ocean Ecosystems Science Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

Collection Method

Random forest modeling on species presence-absence records, with hydrographic data reconstruction.

Time Range

Historical reconstruction includes multi-decadal variability; primary model publication is 2023.

Freshness

null

Geography

Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, specifically Emerald Basin and surrounding channels.