Predicted Land Cover Change Scenarios for 127 Welsh Upland Catchments

Environmental Information Data Centre provides predicted outcomes for land use change scenarios across 127 sub-catchments in upland Wales. The data project maximum and minimum change for 10 land-cover types based on factors like agricultural land quality and ownership. This work was part of the NERC-funded DURESS project, using underlying mapping data from 1998-2007.

Use Cases

• Model the probability of change for 10 land-cover types across 127 sub-catchments under different scenarios.
• Analyze how projected land-cover change relates to underlying factors like agricultural land quality and ownership type.
• Assess total land-cover change summaries to understand potential future responses within Welsh upland catchments.
• Use scenario-based projections of maximum and minimum change to inform upland river ecosystem service sustainability planning.

Strengths

• Covers 127 distinct sub-catchments for spatial analysis in upland Wales.
• Models change for 10 different land-cover types.
• Scenarios are grounded in existing temporal data from 1998-2007.
• Projections incorporate multiple drivers: current land cover, agricultural land quality, ownership type, and conservation status.

Limitations

• Predictions are based on qualitatively expressed scenarios and rule-based projections, not observed future data.
• The underlying mapping data is over 15 years old, which may not reflect current land cover conditions.
• Data format is a ZIP file; specific internal structure, row count, and column details are unknown.

Provenance

Source

Environmental Information Data Centre.

Collection Method

A spatial approach developed to interpret qualitative scenarios, using rules based on current land cover, agricultural land quality, ownership type, and nature conservation status to project change.

Time Range

Underlying mapping data: 1998-2007. Scenario projections are for future change.

Freshness

Metadata last updated March 2026, but core predictive data is derived from 1998-2007 sources.

Geography

127 sub-catchments in upland Wales.