Projected Crop Yield Changes in Africa Under Climate Scenarios

This dataset compiles projections of crop yield changes in Africa under future climate scenarios from 72 peer-reviewed crop modeling studies. It expands on earlier reviews to include grains, tubers, and cash crops, capturing variables like crop type, country, climate scenario, and adaptation measures. The data is harmonized for meta-analysis of climate risks to African agriculture.

Use Cases

• Analyze projected yield changes (YI %) by crop type and country under different climate scenarios.
• Assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures (ΔY_adapt %) for specific crops like maize, rice, or wheat.
• Model the relationship between local climate change signals (ΔT, ΔP) and projected yield outcomes.
• Compare baseline and future yield projections (Yb, Yf) with and without CO₂ fertilization assumptions.

Strengths

• Integrates data from 72 peer-reviewed crop modeling studies, providing a substantial evidence base.
• Expands coverage beyond earlier efforts to include grains, tubers, and cash crops.
• Harmonizes key variables like crop type, climate scenario, and adaptation measures for meta-analysis.
• Geolocated study sites are matched with spatially explicit climate delta values from the ISIMIP3b NextGDDP dataset.

Limitations

• Projections are model-based and subject to the uncertainties inherent in climate and crop simulation models.
• The dataset's temporal coverage for future projections is tied to the specific time periods (e.g., 2030s, 2050s) of the source studies.
• A forthcoming update for legumes is noted, indicating the current version may not cover all crop categories.

Provenance

Source

Systematic review of studies from Scopus and Web of Science, following PRISMA guidelines.

Collection Method

Data extracted from peer-reviewed studies using crop simulation models; climate deltas assigned from ISIMIP3b NextGDDP dataset.

Time Range

Future projections for periods like the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, compared to a historical baseline (e.g., 2005).

Freshness

Last updated on 2026-02-06.

Geography

Africa.