Projected Extreme Sea Levels for BC Harbours Under SSP585

Projected 30-year, 50-year, and 100-year return levels for harbours in British Columbia under the SSP585 high emission scenario for 2050 and 2100. The data combines present extreme sea levels derived from 1993-2020 hourly coastal sea level simulations with projected mean sea level rise from IPCC AR6, adjusted for local vertical land motion.

Use Cases

• Compare projected 30-year, 50-year, and 100-year return levels for harbours in 2050 versus 2100 to assess climate change impacts on coastal infrastructure.
• Analyze the contribution of projected mean sea level rise versus present extreme sea levels to the total return level for specific harbours.
• Model coastal flood risk by integrating the projected return levels with local tide and storm surge data for British Columbia harbours.
• Validate regional climate models by comparing the simulated present extreme sea levels from the NEPOM model against observational data for the 1993-2020 period.

Strengths

• Provides projections for three distinct return periods (30, 50, 100 years) and two future time horizons (2050, 2100).
• Derives present extremes from a 28-year simulation period (1993-2020) using a high-resolution Northeast Pacific Ocean Model.
• Integrates IPCC Sixth Assessment Report regional mean sea level rise projections under the SSP585 scenario, adjusted for local vertical land motion.

Limitations

• Projections are based on a single high-emission scenario (SSP585), limiting comparison with moderate or low-emission futures.
• Present extreme sea levels are derived from a synthetic model simulation (NEPOM), not direct observations, which may introduce model bias.
• The dataset's spatial coverage is limited to harbours in British Columbia, Canada, reducing applicability to other coastal regions.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Collection Method

Present extremes derived from hourly coastal sea levels simulated with the Northeast Pacific Ocean Model (NEPOM) for 1993-2020. Projections combine these with IPCC AR6 regional mean sea level rise data under SSP585, adjusted for vertical land motion.

Time Range

Present extremes: 1993-2020. Projections for years 2050 and 2100.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Harbours in British Columbia, Canada.