Projected Extreme Sea Levels for British Columbia Harbours Under SSP126

British Columbia harbours have projected 30-year, 50-year, and 100-year sea level return levels for 2050 and 2100 under the SSP126 low emission scenario. The data combines present extreme levels from 1993-2020 simulations with IPCC-projected mean sea level rise, adjusted for local vertical land motion. It is provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

Use Cases

• Model coastal flood risk for British Columbia harbours using projected 30-year, 50-year, and 100-year return levels.
• Compare projected sea level extremes for 2050 and 2100 under the SSP126 scenario to assess long-term infrastructure planning needs.
• Analyze the impact of local vertical land motion adjustments on projected mean sea level rise for specific harbour locations.
• Validate hydrodynamic models by comparing simulated present extreme sea levels (1993-2020) against other regional datasets.

Strengths

• Projections are based on a high-resolution Northeast Pacific Ocean Model (NEPOM) for simulating present conditions.
• Data incorporates regional mean sea level rise from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report under a specific emission scenario (SSP126).
• Includes adjustments for local vertical land motion, providing location-specific projections.

Limitations

• Projections are limited to a single emission scenario (SSP126), not covering higher emission pathways.
• The dataset's spatial scope is restricted to harbours in British Columbia, Canada.
• Present extreme levels are derived from a synthetic model simulation (1993-2020), not direct long-term observations.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Collection Method

Present extremes derived from hourly coastal sea levels simulated with a high-resolution Northeast Pacific Ocean Model (NEPOM). Projected mean sea level rise from IPCC AR6 SSP126 data, adjusted for local vertical land motion.

Time Range

Present extremes based on 1993-2020 period; projections for years 2050 and 2100.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Harbours in British Columbia, Canada.