Projected Extreme Sea Levels for BC Harbours Under SSP245 Scenario, 2050 and 2100

Fisheries and Oceans Canada provides projected 30-year, 50-year, and 100-year extreme sea level return levels for harbours in British Columbia. The dataset combines present extremes derived from 1993-2020 hourly coastal sea level simulations with projected mean sea level rise from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report under the SSP245 scenario. Projections are provided for the years 2050 and 2100, adjusted for local vertical land motion.

Use Cases

• Model future coastal flood risk based on projected 30-year, 50-year, and 100-year return levels.
• Assess infrastructure vulnerability for BC harbours based on sea level rise projections for 2050 and 2100.
• Validate regional climate models using extreme sea level data derived from the Northeast Pacific Ocean Model (NEPOM).
• Plan coastal adaptation strategies using projections adjusted for local vertical land motion.

Strengths

• Projections are based on a high-resolution Northeast Pacific Ocean Model (NEPOM) simulation.
• Provides return levels for three distinct return periods (30-year, 50-year, 100-year) at two future time horizons (2050, 2100).
• Integrates IPCC 6th Assessment Report regional mean sea level rise data under the SSP245 scenario.
• Adjusts projections for local vertical land motion, a key factor for accurate local estimates.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data is specific to an intermediate emission scenario (SSP245) and may not represent higher or lower pathways.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Collection Method

Present extremes derived from hourly coastal sea levels (1993-2020) simulated with NEPOM; future rise from IPCC AR6 SSP245 data adjusted for vertical land motion.

Time Range

Projections for 2050 and 2100, based on present extremes from 1993-2020.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-24 08:05:24.782999; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Harbours in British Columbia, Canada.