Permafrost Carbon Projections for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299

An ensemble of model projections provides monthly average diagnostic outputs for the northern hemisphere permafrost domain from 1901 to 2299. The dataset results from a Permafrost Carbon Network synthesis effort to evaluate climate change impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle under two CMIP5 warming scenarios. Model outputs are at a 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution, using scaled climate driver data from CRUNCEP and CMIP5.

Use Cases

• Projecting future carbon emissions from thawing permafrost based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios.
• Analyzing spatial and temporal trends in permafrost domain variables at a 0.5-degree resolution.
• Comparing ensemble model outputs for the northern hemisphere terrestrial carbon cycle.
• Evaluating climate feedbacks and soil carbon dynamics under different emission pathways.
• Calibrating or validating terrestrial biosphere models using a standardized synthesis dataset.

Strengths

• Extremely long temporal coverage spanning 398 years (1901-2299).
• Represents a coordinated multi-model ensemble synthesis by the Permafrost Carbon Network.
• Provides data for two distinct climate forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5).
• Has a defined, consistent spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees.

Limitations

• Specific column names and data variables are not listed in any source description.
• The exact dataset size and row count are unknown across all platforms.
• License is ambiguously listed as 'other-license-specified' without further detail.

Provenance

Source

Permafrost Carbon Network model synthesis, with organization listed as National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Collection Method

Ensemble of model projections using driver data from CRUNCEP (modified for MsTMIP) scaled with CMIP5 global climate model output.

Time Range

1901 to 2299

Freshness

Last updated on 2026-04-12 according to datagov and nasa_earthdata.

Geography

Northern hemisphere permafrost domain