Permafrost Carbon Projections: RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios, 1901-2299

An ensemble of model projections simulates the impact of climate change on the northern hemisphere permafrost carbon cycle from 1901 to 2299. Monthly average diagnostic outputs are provided at a 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The synthesis effort, organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network, uses scaled CMIP5 climate model data to evaluate future carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.

Use Cases

• Projecting future carbon emissions from thawing permafrost based on RCP climate scenarios.
• Analyzing monthly changes in terrestrial carbon cycle variables across the high northern latitudes.
• Validating and benchmarking terrestrial ecosystem models against a multi-model ensemble.
• Assessing climate policy impacts by comparing outcomes under a Paris Accord-aligned scenario (RCP4.5) versus a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

Strengths

• Covers a 399-year time range from 1901 to 2299, enabling long-term trend analysis.
• Provides a multi-model ensemble from a coordinated synthesis effort by the Permafrost Carbon Network.
• Includes projections under two distinct climate forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for comparative analysis.

Limitations

• Specific column names and variable definitions are not provided in the available metadata.
• Conflicting license information exists between platforms ('other-license-specified' vs. 'None').
• Dataset size and row counts are unknown across all sources.

Provenance

Source

Permafrost Carbon Network synthesis effort, with data hosted by NASA.

Collection Method

Model ensembles driven by CRUNCEP data scaled with CMIP5 global climate model outputs.

Time Range

1901-01-01 to 2299-12-31

Freshness

Last updated on 2026-05-13 according to two platforms.

Geography

Northern hemisphere permafrost domain at 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution.