U.S. AIDS and Immunosuppressed HIV Projections, 1992-1994

1992-1994 projections for the number of persons diagnosed with AIDS and the prevalence of severely immunosuppressed HIV-infected persons in the United States. The report, authored by J M Karon of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, includes annual estimates and discusses the impact of an expanded surveillance definition. For example, AIDS diagnoses were projected to be 60,000-70,000 per year during this period.

Use Cases

• Modeling the annual growth of AIDS diagnoses based on projected increases of a few percent per year.
• Analyzing the differential impact of HIV transmission routes based on projections for homosexual/bisexual men, injecting drug users, and heterosexual transmission.
• Estimating the prevalence of severe immunosuppression (CD4+ T-cell count < 200/microL) among HIV-infected persons not diagnosed with AIDS.
• Assessing the projected effect of expanding the AIDS surveillance definition to include all persons with severe immunosuppression.

Strengths

• Provides specific numerical projections, such as 60,000-70,000 annual AIDS diagnoses for 1992-1994.
• Includes quantified uncertainty ranges, for example a plausible range of 43,000-93,000 for AIDS diagnoses in 1994.
• Offers projections for distinct subpopulations, including homosexual/bisexual men, injecting drug users, and cases attributed to heterosexual transmission.

Limitations

• Row count and column-level documentation are absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.
• The description notes considerable uncertainty in the projections, with wide plausible ranges for estimates.

Provenance

Source

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Collection Method

Likely contains statistical modeling and surveillance data analysis.

Time Range

1992-1994 (with reference data from 1991 and projections to 1995)

Geography

United States