African Swine Fever Introduction Risk via Legal Imports into South Korea, 2009-2018

A quantitative stochastic model assessed the annual probability of African swine fever introduction into South Korea via legal imports of live pigs and pig products from 2009 to 2018. The study, authored by Ki hyun Cho of the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, found a mean annual probability of 1.58×10⁻⁷ for live pigs and 1.59×10⁻¹⁰ for pig products, with Poland accounting for 87.9% of the latter risk.

Use Cases

• Benchmarking import quarantine policy effectiveness based on calculated annual risk probabilities.
• Prioritizing risk mitigation strategies based on the identified high-risk country (Poland) for pig product imports.
• Modeling the impact of control measures like food waste management on exposure possibility as suggested in the description.

Strengths

• Provides specific quantitative risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals (e.g., 1.58×10⁻⁷ for live pigs).
• Covers a defined high-risk period of ten years (2009-2018).
• Identifies a primary risk contributor (Poland for 87.9% of pig product risk).

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.

Provenance

Source

Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency

Collection Method

Quantitative stochastic modeling of legal import pathways.

Time Range

2009-2018

Geography

Republic of Korea (South Korea), with import sources implied.