State Legislative Gerrymandering Durability Analysis

Replication Data for 'Durable Majority Gerrymanders' provides tools and data for analyzing the durability of partisan gerrymanders in state legislative elections. The dataset, created by Maxwell Palmer and hosted by the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse, was last updated in March 2026. It enables forward-looking assessment of how electoral maps can insulate a party's majority from future voter swings.

Use Cases

• Estimate durable majority probabilities for specific state legislative maps using the provided estimation tools.
• Analyze the relationship between underlying geographic features, voter partisanship, and map durability metrics.
• Compare the durability of enacted state legislative maps against counterfactual, unconstrained gerrymanders.
• Model the impact of state-level redistricting guidelines on the forward-looking stability of a party's legislative majority.

Strengths

• Dataset supports a peer-reviewed publication in the American Journal of Political Science.
• Analysis covers all states to assess the widespread potential for durable gerrymanders.
• Provides directly interpretable and forward-looking measures of gerrymandering durability.

Limitations

• Specific row count, column names, and sample size are not provided in the input.
• Geographic coverage is limited to the United States, with no international context.
• The theoretical and empirical tools may require domain expertise in political science to apply correctly.

Provenance

Source

American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) Dataverse, author Maxwell Palmer.

Collection Method

Developed as replication data for academic research on gerrymandering durability.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-30.

Geography

United States (state-level).