A cross-national dataset spanning 25 countries used to analyze the influence of public opinion polling on election results. The data supports a quasi-experimental analysis showing parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them than those just above. The dataset is associated with research published in The Journal of Politics.
Use Cases
- Analyze the self-fulfilling prophecy effect of polls based on party polling position relative to thresholds.
- Study the impact of statistical uncertainty cues on polling effects based on the complementary survey experiment.
- Model strategic voting behavior in multi-party systems based on cross-national electoral data.
- Investigate media reporting practices on polls based on the described information gap across many countries.
Strengths
- Dataset spans 25 countries, providing a cross-national perspective.
- Analysis quantifies a large effect size of approximately 45 percentage points.
- Research design incorporates a quasi-experimental analysis and a complementary survey experiment.
Limitations
- Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
- Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
- Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download.
Provenance
- Source
- The Journal of Politics Dataverse
- Collection Method
- Quasi-experimental analysis of a novel cross-national data set.
- Freshness
- Last updated 2026-05-23 22:17:48; freshness should be verified.
- Geography
- 25 countries