China-US Mirror Trade Data for Customs-BoP Gap Analysis, 2018-2024

Replication data for a 2026 study testing hypotheses on China's customs-BoP gap using mirror trade data. The dataset likely contains Chinese-reported exports versus partner-reported imports for HS-2 chapters 84, 85, and 87 across 12 major partners from 2018 to 2024. It was created by Brian Peters of Demographics and Global Capital Allocation and updated on May 1, 2026.

Use Cases

• Test the VAT-refund fraud hypothesis for trade gaps based on bilateral mirror trade discrepancies.
• Analyze the contract-manufacturing channel using aggregate mirror gap trends versus customs-BoP gap movements.
• Investigate sanctions-driven undercounting in specific trade categories like vehicles using persistent negative gap data.
• Evaluate the SAFE smoothing thesis using the divergence between mirror trade and official balance-of-payments adjustments.

Strengths

• Covers a 7-year time range from 2018 to 2024, allowing for trend analysis.
• Focuses on 12 major trade partners and key HS-2 chapters (84, 85, 87), providing a targeted scope.
• Applies a standardized 4% CIF→FOB adjustment based on IMF methodology.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count and file formats are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data may reflect geographic bias inherent to the selected 12 partner countries.

Provenance

Source

UN Comtrade public preview API

Collection Method

Data pulled via API for specified HS chapters and partners, with re-pulled totals for partners returning multi-row queries.

Time Range

2018-2024

Freshness

Last updated 2026-05-01 17:00:46; freshness should be verified.

Geography

China and 12 major trade partners (likely including USA, RUS, BLR, KGZ among others)