Replication data documents a persistent 5-9 percentage point GDP gap between US economic indicators and a demographic baseline from 2000 onwards. Brian Peters (2026) tests inequality and pension regime mechanisms, finding null results. The post-COVID widening of the US current-account deficit is largely attributed to non-demographic factors.
Use Cases
- Analyzing deviations from demographic baselines based on current account, fiscal balance, savings, and investment-income data.
- Testing cross-country mechanisms like inequality and pension spending effects on economic imbalances.
- Investigating the non-demographic drivers of the post-COVID US current-account deficit widening.
- Examining creditor asymmetry in the impact of aging on income balances.
Strengths
- Provides replication data for a 2026 academic paper.
- Documents a persistent 5-9 percentage point GDP gap across four orthogonal economic margins.
- Includes specific statistical results (beta coefficients and p-values) for tested mechanisms.
Limitations
- Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
- Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
- Data may reflect temporal bias inherent to its focus on the US from 2000 onwards.
Provenance
- Source
- Demographics and Global Capital Allocation
- Collection Method
- Replication package for academic analysis.
- Time Range
- Persistently from 2000 onwards, with specific analysis of 2019 to 2024 changes.
- Freshness
- Last updated 2026-06-09 18:01:55
- Geography
- United States, with cross-country comparisons.