Conflict Risk and State Coherence Data for 176 Countries (2006-2024)

Replication Data for Triangulating Peace Revisited provides 3,281 country-year observations. Dennis Sullivan of The Astraea Initiative Dataverse compiled this data, which integrates five sources including V-Dem and UCDP/PRIO. The dataset covers the period from 2006 to 2024.

Use Cases

• Predicting interstate conflict risk (tau) using indicators of democratic backsliding and state coherence decay.
• Modeling intrastate conflict risk (kappa) with features like the State Coherence Decay Function (Xi) and false democracy facade (phi).
• Analyzing the impact of IGO capture on conflict thresholds using calculated values for false binding energy (psi).
• Testing Kantian Event Horizon Theory (KEHT) by correlating trade data, IGO membership, and democratic scores with conflict outcomes.

Strengths

• 3,281 country-year observations provide a substantial sample for statistical analysis.
• Integrates five established data sources (V-Dem, World Bank, COW/KOF, FSI/CAST, UCDP/PRIO).
• Covers 176 countries, offering broad geographic representation.
• Data spans 19 years (2006-2024), enabling longitudinal study.

Limitations

• Calculated metrics like tau and kappa are derived; their accuracy depends on underlying source data and modeling assumptions.
• Listwise deletion of missing data may reduce sample size and introduce bias for some analyses.
• The temporal coverage ends in 2024, limiting analysis of very recent global events.

Provenance

Source

The Astraea Initiative Dataverse, authored by Dennis Sullivan.

Collection Method

Integrates and calculates metrics from five independent sources: V-Dem v15, World Bank trade data, COW/KOF IGO hybrid, Fund for Peace FSI/CAST dataset, and UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset.

Time Range

2006 to 2024

Freshness

Last updated in April 2026.

Geography

176 countries