Belgian Politician and Citizen Electoral Expectation Survey 2024

Featuring survey evidence from local politicians and citizens regarding their expectations for the 2024 regional elections in Belgium. It explores the accuracy of predictions and the role of wishful thinking in shaping electoral estimations. The study compares expectations between politicians and the general public.

Use Cases

• Analyze the correlation between a respondent's preferred party and their predicted likelihood of that party winning seats to quantify wishful thinking.
• Compare the predicted probability of parties entering a government coalition between politician and citizen survey groups.
• Benchmark the accuracy of electoral seat predictions by comparing survey responses with actual election outcomes.
• Investigate how partisan identities shape electoral expectations and forecast accuracy across both surveyed populations.

Strengths

• Data is focused on a specific electoral event, the 2024 regional elections in Belgium.
• Provides a direct comparison between the expectations of politicians and citizens from parallel surveys.
• The dataset was last updated in February 2026, indicating recent maintenance.

Limitations

• The sample size and number of rows are unknown, limiting assessment of statistical power.
• Geographic coverage is limited to Belgium, specifically its regional elections.
• The specific survey questions, columns, and data structure are not detailed in the input.

Provenance

Source

Harvard Dataverse, authored by Philippe Mongrain.

Collection Method

Survey evidence collected from local politicians and citizens before the 2024 regional elections in Belgium.

Time Range

Around the 2024 regional elections in Belgium.

Freshness

Data pertains to the 2024 elections and was last updated in 2026.

Geography

Belgium.