Sahel Cattle Theft Probability: Commune-Level Predictions for Senegal and Mauritania

Cattle theft probability predictions at the commune and municipality level for Senegal and Mauritania, produced by the PREDISAN Project (Acción contra el hambre and GIS4tech). Updated in March 2026, the data utilizes correlations between agroclimatic indicators, biomass, and violence to estimate risks in regions without direct incident reporting. The dataset supports humanitarian vulnerability monitoring for pastoral populations in the Western Sahel.

Use Cases

• Predicting livestock security risks using biomass and agroclimatic indicators
• Spatial analysis of humanitarian vulnerability for agro-pastoral populations
• Resource allocation for pastoral protection based on commune-level probability scores

Strengths

• Commune-level spatial granularity for two countries
• Integrates multi-domain variables including biomass and violence indicators
• CC-BY license allows for open academic and humanitarian reuse

Limitations

• Contains model-derived predictions rather than raw ground-truth incident reports
• Lack of explicit column definitions in the source metadata
• Geographic scope is limited to Senegal and Mauritania

Provenance

Source

PREDISAN Project (Agencia Andaluza de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo and University of Granada)

Collection Method

Synthetic/Model-generated based on GIS analysis and AI correlations

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Senegal and Mauritania