Simple 2-Patch Vaccine Model

A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model simulating disease dynamics between connected vaccinated and unvaccinated sub-populations. The model was created by David N. Fisman to explore the disproportionate impact of unvaccinated individuals on infection risk among the vaccinated. It uses a mixing matrix approach to simulate a spectrum from random mixing to complete assortativity.

Use Cases

• Simulating epidemic attack rates based on different levels of assortative mixing between groups.
• Analyzing the contact-adjusted contribution of unvaccinated subgroups to infection risk among vaccinated individuals.
• Modeling the impact of non-random mixing on final epidemic size within vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.

Strengths

• Model focuses on a specific, policy-relevant question regarding vaccine hesitancy and population mixing.
• Description provides a concrete finding: unvaccinated individuals contributed to infection risk among the vaccinated at a rate up to 6.4 times higher than expected based on contact numbers in the base case.

Limitations

• Row count and specific column-level documentation are absent; field semantics must be inferred from the model description.
• The dataset is a simulation output, not empirical data, limiting direct applicability to real-world validation.

Provenance

Source

David N. Fisman via paperswithcode

Collection Method

Constructed SIR compartmental model with two connected sub-populations and a mixing matrix.