Simulated Larch Forest Coverage in Chukotka Under Climate Scenarios, 1800-3000 CE

LAVESI model simulations project the percent forest cover for larch trees around Ilirney lake, Russia, from 1800 to 3000 CE. The dataset provides the mean, minimum, and maximum values from three simulation repeats for three RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 8.5) and hypothetical cooling scenarios. Iuliia Shevtsova of the Alfred Wegener Institute created this data using an updated model forced with historical and future climate data.

Use Cases

• Projecting long-term forest cover change based on RCP climate forcing scenarios mentioned in the description.
• Analyzing the potential impact of hypothetical cooling events on forest ecosystems based on the included cooling scenario data.
• Comparing model simulation variability using the provided minimum, maximum, and mean values from three simulation repeats.
• Studying the response of larch-dominated boreal forests to climate change in a specific geographic region.

Strengths

• Data spans a 1200-year time range from 1800 to 3000 CE, providing long-term projections.
• Includes results for three standard RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 8.5) and hypothetical cooling scenarios for comparison.
• Presents the mean, minimum, and maximum values from three simulation repeats, indicating model variability.
• Based on the LAVESI model updated in 2023 and validated with 2018 field inventory data.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data is simulated model output, not direct observational measurements.

Provenance

Source

Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

Collection Method

Simulation output from the updated LAVESI vegetation model forced with historical and future climate data.

Time Range

1800 to 3000 CE

Geography

Vicinity of the Ilirney lake system region, Chukotka, Russia