Atlantic Slave Trade Captive Flow Estimates by Decade

Supplying estimates of captives carried in the Atlantic slave trade across 33,345 voyage cases, organized into 40 distinct routes linking African regions to overseas destinations. It covers the period from the 1650s to the 1860s and was created by Patrick Manning using Bayesian statistical techniques to estimate missing data on routes and captive flows.

Use Cases

• Estimate total captive flows for specific decades using the Bayesian statistical model and route data.
• Analyze the distribution of captive numbers across the 40 defined routes linking African and overseas regions.
• Simulate historical slave voyage routes and populations using the provided R-language code for demographic modeling.

Strengths

• Contains 33,345 cases of slave voyages, providing a substantial basis for analysis.
• Data is structured across 40 defined routes, enabling geographic and temporal flow analysis.
• Employs Bayesian statistical techniques to estimate missing data, addressing gaps in historical records.

Limitations

• The data consists of estimates and simulations, not complete primary records, introducing inherent uncertainty.
• The temporal coverage ends in the 1860s, limiting analysis of post-abolition patterns or long-term impacts.
• Specific variables and file formats are not detailed, which may complicate initial data exploration.

Provenance

Source

Harvard Dataverse, authored by Patrick Manning.

Collection Method

Created using Bayesian statistical techniques to estimate missing data on routes and flows of captives from historical voyage records.

Time Range

1650s to 1860s.

Freshness

The dataset metadata was last updated on 2026-02-20.

Geography

Atlantic slave trade routes linking African regions to overseas regions in the Americas.