South Sudan Subnational Displacement Forecasts for Three-Month Periods

Displacement forecasts for South Sudan at the administrative level 2 for three-month periods. The data, produced by the Danish Refugee Council using the AHEAD model, contains observed, estimated, and forecasted values for internally displaced persons. The dataset was last updated on March 16, 2026.

Use Cases

• Forecast displacement trends for the next three months based on the AHEAD model's forecasted values.
• Analyze historical displacement evolution based on model-estimated values derived from conflict and food security data.
• Validate model outputs by comparing observed displacement numbers from official sources against estimated values.
• Monitor subnational displacement dynamics at the admin 2 level for targeted humanitarian response.

Strengths

• Provides three distinct data types: observed, estimated, and forecasted values for displacement.
• Covers subnational administrative level 2 geography for South Sudan.
• Forecasts are generated for three-month periods, offering a near-term outlook.
• Data is licensed under CC-BY-4.0, permitting flexible reuse.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count and dataset size are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data may reflect geographic and source bias inherent to the specific model and official sources used.

Provenance

Source

Danish Refugee Council

Collection Method

Generated by the AHEAD model using official displacement data, conflict, and food security indicators.

Time Range

Forecasts cover three-month periods from the point of data generation.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-16 09:01:15.766110; freshness should be verified.

Geography

South Sudan at administrative level 2 (subnational).