Shark Presence Probability Models for British Columbia Coast

Spatial estimates predict the probability of occurrence for four shark species along the British Columbia coast. The models, generated by Fisheries and Oceans Canada, integrate data from scientific surveys and commercial fisheries. Predictions are provided at a 3-kilometer resolution and include uncertainty estimates and covariate parameters.

Use Cases

• Compare predicted probability of occurrence for Blue Shark, Salmon Shark, Pacific Sleeper Shark, and Bluntnose Sixgill Shark across the 3 km spatial grid.
• Analyze the relationship between model covariates like depth and slope and the predicted presence of each shark species.
• Assess prediction uncertainty values to identify areas where species distribution models have lower confidence.
• Use the spatial estimates to inform marine spatial planning initiatives for conservation and fisheries management in British Columbia.

Strengths

• Models integrate data from multiple sources, including two scientific surveys and three commercial fishery types.
• Provides high-resolution spatial predictions at a 3-kilometer grid for the British Columbia coast.
• Includes key model outputs like predicted probability of occurrence and prediction uncertainty for each species.
• Based on peer-reviewed methodology using spatial generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMMs).

Limitations

• The dataset contains modeled predictions, not direct observational records of shark presence.
• Model coverage is limited to the study area bound by the data sources, potentially excluding parts of the BC coast.
• Source data from fisheries may have inherent spatial and temporal biases not fully corrected by the models.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

Collection Method

Species distribution models (SDMs) using spatial GLMMs on data from scientific surveys and commercial fisheries.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

British Columbia coast, Canada.