Phytophthora Pinifolia Infection Risk Maps For 82 Scottish Pinewood Fragments

82 core fragments of the Caledonian Pinewood Inventory in Scotland are mapped for potential infection risk by Phytophthora pinifolia. Risk scores integrate climate suitability, fragment proximity, and recent planting data, representing conditions from 2013 to 2023. The analysis models vulnerability and probable introduction areas for this pathogen, which is ranked 8th among 109 assessed Phytophthora species for UK arrival likelihood.

Use Cases

• Model climate suitability for pathogen growth across 82 pinewood fragments to forecast infection spread under different scenarios.
• Analyze fragment proximity and recent planting under forestry grants to identify high-risk corridors for pathogen establishment.
• Assess integrated risk scores to prioritize conservation and monitoring efforts for Caledonian Pinewood Inventory fragments.
• Map probable areas of introduction and establishment for P. pinifolia based on climatic similarity between Chile and UK habitats.

Strengths

• Covers 82 distinct Caledonian Pinewood Inventory core fragments for targeted spatial analysis.
• Risk model integrates multiple data layers: climate suitability, proximity, and forestry activity.
• Data is broadly representative of a recent 10-year period from 2013 to 2023.
• Based on a formal risk assessment ranking P. pinifolia 8th among 109 Phytophthora species for UK arrival likelihood.

Limitations

• The pathogen P. pinifolia has not been detected in the UK, so risk maps are hypothetical projections.
• Data and models used have variable time frames, potentially introducing temporal inconsistencies.
• The only known source region is Chile, limiting the model's applicability to pathways from other regions.

Provenance

Source

Environmental Information Data Centre

Collection Method

Spatial risk analysis integrating climate suitability models, geographic proximity data, and forestry grant records.

Time Range

Broadly representative of 2013 to 2023.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Caledonian Pinewood Inventory fragments in Scotland.