Spatial Scenarios of Future Land Use to 2035 for the Great Barrier Reef Coast

Great Barrier Reef coastal zone scenarios depict eight plausible land use configurations for the year 2035. The dataset was produced by the NERP TE 9.4 project at James Cook University using the IDRISI Land Use Change Modeler, based on workshops and literature reviews. Results are aggregated to a 500-meter resolution to avoid conveying excessive precision from the probabilistic model.

Use Cases

• Conducting impact assessments based on different socio-economic and governance scenarios.
• Understanding connections between land spatial planning and effects on reef values based on scenario storylines.
• Incorporating plausible futures into spatial planning processes for coastal development.
• Analyzing land use change patterns based on transition probability maps and spatial rules.

Strengths

• Covers eight distinct scenarios built from workshops and literature reviews.
• Modeling was conducted at a detailed 50-meter pixel scale before aggregation.
• Scenarios are designed to broaden the extremities of possibilities to assert main differences.

Limitations

• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• The 'predictive' power is not expected to be accurate at a fine scale as changes are applied probabilistically.

Provenance

Source

Australian Ocean Data Network (via data_gov_au), NERP TE 9.4 project, James Cook University.

Collection Method

Land use change modeling using the IDRISI Land Use Change Modeler, based on workshops, literature reviews, and bio-physical predictors.

Time Range

Projected future scenarios for the year 2035.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-07-14 08:13:50.241603; freshness should be verified

Geography

Great Barrier Reef coastal zone, Australia.