Marine Invasive Species Distribution Models for Canada's Coasts

Fisheries and Oceans Canada provides species distribution models and occurrence data for 12 moderate to high risk invasive marine species on Canada's east and west coasts. The dataset includes present-day and future (2075) predicted distributions under a high-emissions climate scenario, along with estimated species richness hotspots. It integrates monitoring data collected since 2005 with environmental data and oceanographic models.

Use Cases

• Predict present-day and future (2075) species distributions for 12 invasive species using the provided modeling results.
• Identify marine invasion hotspots by analyzing the estimated species richness layers derived from summed occurrence probabilities.
• Validate species distribution models by comparing predicted occurrence probabilities with the included occurrence location data.
• Assess climate change impacts on invasive species by comparing present-day and future distribution projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario.

Strengths

• Models distributions for 12 specific invasive species, providing focused ecological insight.
• Includes future projections for the year 2075 under a defined climate scenario (RCP 8.5).
• Integrates multiple data sources, including government monitoring since 2005, online databases, and scientific literature.
• Provides outputs in multiple geospatial formats (ESRI REST, TIFF, FGDB) suitable for GIS analysis.

Limitations

• Limited to 12 species, which may not represent the full spectrum of invasive marine life in Canadian waters.
• Future projections rely on a single, high-emissions climate pathway (RCP 8.5), limiting scenario comparison.
• The underlying occurrence data may have spatial and temporal biases inherent to biological monitoring and literature compilation.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Coastal Ecosystems Science Division.

Collection Method

Data integration from government monitoring (since 2005), online databases, and scientific literature, paired with environmental data in species distribution models.

Time Range

Monitoring data from 2005 onward; models project to 2075.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026; models are based on data and literature up to the 2020 publication.

Geography

Canada's east and west coasts.