Maximum Temperature Projections at 20km Resolution for Western Australia

Bias-corrected maximum temperature projections from the Climate Science Initiative for Western Australia. Data includes monthly averages for annual and seasonal slices across five time periods from 1990 to 2099 under two emissions scenarios. Results are derived from a 10-model ensemble, providing mean, minimum, maximum, and standard deviation values.

Use Cases

• Analyze mean temperature change between the Baseline (1990-2009) and 2090 (2080-2099) periods under SSP3-7.0 to assess high-emissions impacts.
• Compare seasonal standard deviation results across the NARCliM ensemble to evaluate model agreement for Spring and Winter projections.
• Map relative change files for the annual mean calculation to visualize spatial patterns of warming across the 20km grid.
• Assess the statistical range between model results using the provided minimum and maximum ensemble outputs for the 2050 time slice.

Strengths

• Projections cover five distinct time periods spanning 1990 to 2099, providing a 110-year outlook.
• Data is bias-corrected and represents results from a 10-model Global Climate Model ensemble.
• Includes outputs for two emissions scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and provides mean, min, max, and standard deviation.
• Available at a consistent 20-kilometre spatial resolution for annual and seasonal time slices.

Limitations

• Projections are limited to Western Australia, not nationally or globally comprehensive.
• Currently lacks a middle-emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and higher 4km resolution data, which are noted as future updates.
• Understanding the bias-correction methodology and data limitations requires consulting external technical documentation.

Provenance

Source

Department of Water and Environmental Regulation, Climate Science Initiative.

Collection Method

Produced using the NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) ensemble, bias-corrected.

Time Range

Baseline (1990-2009) and future periods: 2030, 2050, 2070, 2090.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Western Australia at 20km grid resolution.