Research data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examines the yield curve slope as a predictor of U.S. recessions. The work by Michael J. Dueker compares the yield curve's predictive power against other indicators like stock prices and the Commerce Department's leading index. It likely contains tabular data for econometric modeling.
Use Cases
- Forecasting U.S. recessions based on the yield curve slope.
- Comparing the predictive power of financial indicators like stock prices.
- Evaluating econometric models for macroeconomic prediction.
- Benchmarking the yield curve against the Commerce Department's index of leading indicators.
Strengths
- Data originates from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a credible source for economic research.
- Focuses on established recession predictors like the yield curve and leading indicators.
- The research is published under an Open Access (green) license.
Limitations
- Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
- Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
- Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.
Provenance
- Source
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Collection Method
- Research compilation for econometric analysis.
- Geography
- United States