Sub-regional Pupil Projections for England with 10-Year Forecasts

Ten-year pupil projections from the most recent academic year of School Census data, covering National Curriculum Years from Reception to Year 11. The dataset provides central forecasts and 95% prediction intervals at Subregion, Region, and England levels. It is an experimental dataset produced by the Greater London Authority, with figures potentially subject to minor revisions.

Use Cases

• Forecasting primary and secondary school enrollment based on school_stage and nc_year variables.
• Analyzing regional demographic trends using projections for ITL Level 2 Subregions (itl22cd).
• Assessing forecast uncertainty for resource planning using the mean_projection, upper_pi, and lower_pi variables.
• Modeling the impact of birth rates on future pupil numbers by linking to the births data source mentioned.

Strengths

• Provides ten-year projections from the most recent academic year of School Census data.
• Includes uncertainty measures via upper and lower 95% prediction intervals (upper_pi, lower_pi).
• Covers multiple geographic levels: ITL Level 2 Subregions, ITL Level 1 Regions, and England in total.

Limitations

• Dataset is described as new and experimental, with figures potentially subject to minor changes.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.

Provenance

Source

Greater London Authority, utilizing UK school census and births data.

Collection Method

Projections generated from school-level, Local Authority level, and Subregion level school census data.

Time Range

Ten-year projections from the most recent academic year of available School Census data.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-06-24 21:02:36.278534; freshness should be verified.

Geography

ITL Level 2 Subregions, ITL Level 1 Regions, and England.