U.S. Subnational Ideology and Presidential Vote Estimates from 2006-2021 Surveys

United States local-level estimates of ideological preferences and presidential voting behavior. The dataset combines ideology estimates from about one million Americans across 18 large-scale surveys between 2006 and 2021, aggregated to multiple geographic units. It was created by Christopher Warshaw of George Washington University to enable examination of political representation at various geographic scales.

Use Cases

• Analyze ideological alignment with voting behavior based on aggregated survey and election data.
• Model political representation across different geographic units like congressional or state legislative districts.
• Examine spatial patterns of ideology and presidential vote share at the zipcode, county, or city level.
• Benchmark local political preferences against national survey trends from 2006-2021.

Strengths

• Ideology estimates derived from about one million Americans across 18 surveys.
• Data aggregated to multiple geographic levels including zipcodes, counties, cities, and legislative districts.
• Combines long-term survey data (2006-2021) with presidential election results.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.

Provenance

Source

Christopher Warshaw, George Washington University

Collection Method

Combined estimates from 18 large-scale surveys using opinion estimation methods, aggregated to geographic units.

Time Range

2006-2021

Freshness

Version indicates 2022, but specific last updated date is unknown.

Geography

United States (zipcode tabulation areas, states, counties, cities, subcounty units, school districts, congressional districts, state legislative districts)