Sudan Subnational Displacement Forecasts for Three-Month Periods

Displacement forecasts for Sudan at the administrative level 1 for the coming three-month period based on the AHEAD model. The data includes observed values from official sources, model estimates of historical displacement, and forecasted values for the next three months. The dataset was last updated on 2026-03-16 and is provided by the Danish Refugee Council under a CC-BY-4.0 license.

Use Cases

• Forecasting future displacement trends based on the AHEAD model's three-month projections.
• Analyzing historical displacement estimates based on conflict and food security indicators.
• Comparing model forecasts with observed displacement data from official sources.
• Monitoring subnational displacement dynamics at the admin 1 level in Sudan.

Strengths

• Includes three distinct data types: observed, estimated, and forecasted values.
• Provides subnational (admin 1 level) granularity for Sudan.
• Model forecasts cover a defined three-month period.
• Published under a permissive CC-BY-4.0 license.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data may reflect geographic and source bias inherent to the collection methods.

Provenance

Source

Danish Refugee Council

Collection Method

Model estimates from the AHEAD model, with observed values drawn from official sources.

Time Range

Historical estimates and three-month forecasts from the point of data creation.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-16 09:03:46.253126; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Sudan, at the administrative level 1 (admin 1).