Evacuation Cost-Loss Model for Extreme Weather Forecasting

166.9 KB PDF authored by Stephen Jewson presents a new evacuation cost-loss model for analyzing forecast timing decisions. The model investigates the weather forecast information required for optimal evacuation choices, such as evacuating now or waiting. It finds that uncertainty around the probability of extreme weather does not affect decisions, but information about how the probability might change between forecasts does.

Use Cases

• Evaluating evacuation timing decisions based on forecast probability changes mentioned in the description
• Understanding the logic of decision-making processes for extreme weather events based on the idealized model
• Improving forecast information systems based on the model's suggestion to include a standard deviation of change

Strengths

• 166.9 KB file size indicates a concise, focused document
• Model is explicitly designed to understand the logic of evacuation decision-making processes
• Published under a CC-BY-4.0 license, allowing for open reuse

Limitations

• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download

Provenance

Source

Stephen Jewson

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-10 06:00:36; freshness should be verified