Extreme Sea Level Projections for Northwest Ireland Under Future Climate Scenarios

Projected extreme sea levels for the northwest coast of Ireland under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios for the 21st century. The dataset includes results from a joint probability method combining storm surges, high tides, and mean sea level rise, with high-resolution inundation maps for Sligo Bay. Tasneem Ahmed published the data on figshare in May 2026.

Use Cases

• Modeling coastal inundation risk based on projected sea level rise and 50-year return level ESLs.
• Comparing historical (1951–2000) and future (2006–2100) extreme sea level statistics.
• Assessing the relative impact of storm surges versus mean sea level rise on future flood hazards.
• Validating regional climate models using downscaled atmospheric fields from EURO-CORDEX.

Strengths

• Includes high-resolution (2 m) LiDAR-derived DEMs for six sites in Sligo Bay.
• Compares two distinct climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for mid-century (2055) and end-of-century (2100) time horizons.
• Quantifies a specific projected increase in inundated area (approximately 54.2%) under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2100.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data is contained in a DOCX file, which may require extraction and conversion for analysis.

Provenance

Source

Tasneem Ahmed via figshare.

Collection Method

Storm surge estimates derived from a finite element ocean model forced with EURO-CORDEX atmospheric fields; tidal levels from harmonic analysis of tide gauge records; sea level rise projections from UKCP18.

Time Range

Historical baseline: 1951–2000. Future projections: 2006–2100.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-05-15 12:50:46; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Northwest coast of Ireland, with detailed focus on Sligo Bay.