Tanzania Stock Index and Macroeconomic Indicators: Monthly SVAR Analysis

Michael Peter's study analyzes monthly data for the Tanzania Share Index (TSI), gold returns, inflation, and electricity consumption using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework. The data was last updated on 2026-05 20 and is shared under a CC-BY-4.0 license on figshare. The analysis identifies long-run relationships and rapid adjustment dynamics within Tanzania's frontier market.

Use Cases

• Modeling impulse response functions for stock market shocks based on the described SVAR framework.
• Analyzing gold as an inflation hedge based on its described persistent positive response to inflation shocks.
• Investigating the decoupling between stock market valuations and real-sector growth mentioned in the findings.
• Forecasting error variance decomposition for a four-variable macroeconomic system as described.

Strengths

• The dataset underpins a formal econometric analysis using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework.
• The description provides specific quantitative findings, such as shocks dissipating within three to five months and own shocks explaining 75%–80% of TSI fluctuations.
• It addresses a data gap for frontier markets by using electricity consumption as a high-frequency proxy for economic activity.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• The dataset is very small at 121.1 KB, indicating limited scope.

Provenance

Source

Michael Peter via figshare.

Collection Method

Data was likely compiled for an SVAR analysis, as described.

Time Range

Monthly data, but specific date range is not provided.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-05-20 04:32:53; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Tanzania, a frontier market in sub-Saharan Africa.