Climate Suitability Projections for 44 Forest Species and 49 Genetic Groups in Spain

Projections for 2021–2100 model the climatic suitability of 44 forest species and 49 genetic groups across Spain under four climate scenarios. The dataset, created by Eulogio Chacón-Moreno and last updated in April 2026, integrates species distribution models with genetic-group level analysis and uncertainty quantification. It provides spatially explicit results at a 1 km² resolution based on downscaled CMIP6 climate model data.

Use Cases

• Identify climate-resilient refugia for specific tree lineages based on genetic-group level projections.
• Assess biogeographical shifts in species suitability under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• Quantify uncertainty in future habitat projections using the Percentage of Climate Models Predicting Suitability (PCM-PS) metric.
• Inform local adaptive provenance transfer strategies for forest management based on projected contraction or expansion trends.

Strengths

• Integrates projections for 44 species and 49 genetic groups, providing both species and intra-specific detail.
• Explicitly quantifies uncertainty across 10 CMIP6 Earth System Models and four climate scenarios.
• Provides high-resolution (1 km²) spatial data downscaled from over 5,500 meteorological stations.
• Covers three future time horizons (2021–2050, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) for long-term planning.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Geographic scope is limited to Spain, which may reduce applicability to other regions.

Provenance

Source

Eulogio Chacón-Moreno via figshare

Collection Method

Statistical modelling framework integrating species distribution models, genetic-group analysis, and climate projections.

Time Range

Future projections for 2021–2100

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-21 10:01:49; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Spain (Iberian Peninsula)