Cost-Effectiveness of Single-Dose vs Two-Dose HPV Vaccination in Kenya and India

A Markov cohort model compares single-dose and two-dose HPV vaccination strategies for 100,000 girls aged 9 in a composite low- and middle-income country setting derived from Kenya and India. The model, authored by Jinyao Wang and last updated in June 2026, estimates costs, disability-adjusted life years averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under various assumptions. Results indicate both vaccination strategies are cost-saving versus no vaccination, with single-dose preventing 64 invasive cancer cases and two-dose preventing 87.

Use Cases

• Compare cost-effectiveness of vaccination schedules based on efficacy and dropout rates.
• Model health outcomes like cancer cases and deaths averted based on protection duration assumptions.
• Perform probabilistic sensitivity analysis on cost-effectiveness results based on described simulation parameters.
• Inform vaccination policy decisions based on willingness-to-pay thresholds for low-income countries.

Strengths

• Model is based on a cohort of 100,000 individuals tracked through a lifetime horizon.
• Analysis includes 10,000-simulation probabilistic sensitivity analysis and multiple scenario analyses.
• Costs and outcomes are estimated using specific efficacy rates (87% for 1-dose, 93% for 2-dose) and coverage assumptions.

Limitations

• The dataset is 11.8 KB, indicating very limited scope, likely containing only summary model results or a single table.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• The model uses a static direct-effect framework that does not capture herd immunity.

Provenance

Source

Jinyao Wang via figshare

Collection Method

Static Markov cohort modeling analysis.

Time Range

Lifetime horizon simulation from age 9 to 99.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-06-04 05:40:42; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Composite LMIC setting derived from Kenya (low-income) and India (lower-middle-income).